{"id":4622,"date":"2024-10-28T09:00:11","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T09:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=4622"},"modified":"2024-10-25T23:18:03","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T23:18:03","slug":"menos-del-10-de-los-inversores-creen-que-el-bitcoin-alcanzara-los-100-000-dolares-en-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/menos-del-10-de-los-inversores-creen-que-el-bitcoin-alcanzara-los-100-000-dolares-en-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Menos del 10% de los inversores creen que el Bitcoin alcanzar\u00e1 los 100.000 d\u00f3lares en 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mientras el Bitcoin (BTC) contin\u00faa su camino de valorizaci\u00f3n y capta la atenci\u00f3n de inversores, solo una peque\u00f1a fracci\u00f3n de ellos considera que la criptomoneda pueda llegar a los 100.000 d\u00f3lares antes de finalizar 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Seg\u00fan datos de Deribit Metrics, el mercado de opciones otorga una probabilidad de apenas 9,58% de que el BTC logre esta ambiciosa meta. Esta expectativa conservadora refleja la postura cautelosa del mercado, incluso ante se\u00f1ales de recuperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica y posibles cambios en las pol\u00edticas monetarias de Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n<p>La baja probabilidad de que el BTC llegue a los 100.000 d\u00f3lares se da a pesar del optimismo de los inversores sobre el futuro de la moneda digital. Tras periodos de volatilidad y preocupaciones por un exceso de oferta, el mercado de criptomonedas ha mostrado signos de estabilidad.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, el \u00edndice de volatilidad impl\u00edcita del Bitcoin, conocido como DVOL, se mantiene en torno al 50% y 60%, un nivel que indica que los inversores no esperan grandes fluctuaciones de precio a corto plazo. Este escenario sugiere que el mercado de BTC deber\u00eda mantener movimientos m\u00e1s controlados, sin grandes disparadas hacia nuevos niveles de precio en el corto plazo.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/analista-apuesta-por-un-aumento-del-60-para-dogecoin-y-hace-proyecciones-para-solana-y-sui\/\">Analista apuesta por un aumento del 60% para Dogecoin y hace proyecciones para Solana y Sui<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>\u00bfBitcoin a 100.000 d\u00f3lares?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>La volatilidad impl\u00edcita juega un papel importante en la formaci\u00f3n de estas expectativas. Bas\u00e1ndose en el modelo Black-Scholes, el c\u00e1lculo de probabilidad en el mercado de opciones tiene en cuenta el precio actual del BTC, el precio de ejercicio de las opciones, el tiempo hasta el vencimiento y la volatilidad esperada.<\/p>\n<p>Cuanto mayor sea la volatilidad impl\u00edcita, mayores ser\u00e1n las posibilidades de que el precio del Bitcoin alcance valores m\u00e1s altos. No obstante, el \u00edndice de volatilidad del BTC sugiere que las probabilidades de un aumento significativo est\u00e1n limitadas.<\/p>\n<p>Aunque la meta de 100.000 d\u00f3lares parece lejana, algunos analistas ven una posibilidad m\u00e1s concreta de que el BTC alcance los 82.000 d\u00f3lares antes de que termine el a\u00f1o. Griffin Ardern, jefe de negociaci\u00f3n de opciones de BloFin, explic\u00f3 que la volatilidad impl\u00edcita del 54% para opciones que vencen en diciembre indica un margen de subida o bajada de aproximadamente el 22%.<\/p>\n<p>Esta proyecci\u00f3n coloca al BTC en un rango de precio cercano a los 82.000 d\u00f3lares. Se trata de una meta m\u00e1s realista, aunque a\u00fan considerable, para los inversores.<\/p>\n<p>La posibilidad de un aumento en la volatilidad en los pr\u00f3ximos meses tambi\u00e9n se ve influenciada por factores externos, como las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos en noviembre.<\/p>\n<p>Los inversores consideran que el resultado electoral podr\u00eda tener un impacto significativo en la regulaci\u00f3n de activos digitales. Se espera que esto incremente la volatilidad del Bitcoin, lo que potencialmente llevar\u00eda a nuevas fluctuaciones de precio. Independientemente de qui\u00e9n gane, los analistas advierten sobre la posibilidad de una fuerte volatilidad en el mercado de criptomonedas, especialmente si las pol\u00edticas de los candidatos afectan al sector.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/binance-anuncia-futuros-de-memecoin-y-su-precio-se-dispara-un-90\/\">Binance anuncia futuros de memecoin y su precio se dispara un 90%<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mientras el Bitcoin (BTC) contin\u00faa su camino de valorizaci\u00f3n y capta la atenci\u00f3n de inversores, solo una peque\u00f1a fracci\u00f3n de ellos considera que la criptomoneda pueda llegar a los 100.000 d\u00f3lares antes de finalizar 2024. Seg\u00fan datos de Deribit Metrics, el mercado de opciones otorga una probabilidad de apenas 9,58% de que el BTC logre &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/menos-del-10-de-los-inversores-creen-que-el-bitcoin-alcanzara-los-100-000-dolares-en-2024\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Menos del 10% de los inversores creen que el Bitcoin alcanzar\u00e1 los 100.000 d\u00f3lares en 2024<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":4623,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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