{"id":25626,"date":"2025-12-02T18:00:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T18:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=25626"},"modified":"2025-12-02T16:18:35","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T16:18:35","slug":"el-ciclo-de-4-anos-del-bitcoin-termino-y-un-nuevo-maximo-llegara-en-2026-dice-grayscale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/el-ciclo-de-4-anos-del-bitcoin-termino-y-un-nuevo-maximo-llegara-en-2026-dice-grayscale\/","title":{"rendered":"El ciclo de 4 a\u00f1os del Bitcoin termin\u00f3 y un nuevo m\u00e1ximo llegar\u00e1 en 2026, dice Grayscale"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Grayscale<\/strong> hizo dos previsiones importantes esta semana. En la primera, <strong>la gestora afirm\u00f3 que el tradicional ciclo de cuatro a\u00f1os del Bitcoin (BTC) ya no existe<\/strong>. Adem\u00e1s, tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 que <strong>la criptomoneda a\u00fan no alcanz\u00f3 su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico<\/strong>, pero que esto deber\u00eda ocurrir en 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Grayscale Research public\u00f3 un nuevo informe afirmando que el <strong>BTC podr\u00eda estar encamin\u00e1ndose a alcanzar nuevos m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos<\/strong> en 2026. Esto ocurre a pesar de las preocupaciones sobre una posible ca\u00edda que podr\u00eda durar varios a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n<p>Respecto al ciclo de halving, <strong>Grayscale afirm\u00f3 que este ya no encaja en el contexto actual del <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/mercado\/\">mercado<\/a><\/strong>. Tradicionalmente, el Bitcoin alcanzaba su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico hasta 18 meses despu\u00e9s del halving. Esto ocurri\u00f3 en octubre, cuando el <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/bitcoin-hoy-02-12-2025-la-fed-inyecta-liquidez-en-el-mercado-y-el-btc-sube-a-usd-87-000\/\">precio del Bitcoin<\/a> lleg\u00f3 a USD 126.000, su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico actual.<\/p>\n<p>De acuerdo con la teor\u00eda del ciclo de halving, los cambios de precio ocurren siempre despu\u00e9s del recorte en la emisi\u00f3n de nuevos BTC. Eso significa que <strong>el precio tiende a subir durante tres a\u00f1os y luego cae de forma significativa en el cuarto<\/strong>. Sin embargo, la empresa ahora afirma que esta forma de pensar est\u00e1 \u00abdesactualizada\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-338391\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-02-at-09.39.48.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin.\" width=\"1654\" height=\"1072\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/proyecciones-para-xrp-apuntan-a-usd-20-rotacion-hacia-maxi-doge-gana-fuerza-en-el-mercado\/\">Proyecciones para XRP apuntan a USD 20 \u2013 rotaci\u00f3n hacia Maxi Doge gana fuerza en el mercado<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>El ciclo de halving lleg\u00f3 a su fin, dice la gestora<\/h2>\n<p>El informe explica por qu\u00e9 el modelo anterior ya no es v\u00e1lido. A diferencia de los mercados alcistas pasados, <strong>este a\u00f1o la moneda no tuvo la subida que normalmente ocurre antes de una correcci\u00f3n fuerte<\/strong>. Esa valorizaci\u00f3n en <strong>formato \u201cparab\u00f3lico\u201d<\/strong>, como ilustra Grayscale en el informe, no ocurri\u00f3 en 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, hoy <strong>los flujos de capital provienen principalmente de productos negociados en bolsa<\/strong>, como los ETFs, y de tesorer\u00edas corporativas de activos digitales. Es decir, el entusiasmo del<strong> inversor minorista que impuls\u00f3 los ciclos anteriores<\/strong> est\u00e1 disminuyendo y haciendo que<strong> la valorizaci\u00f3n del Bitcoin sea m\u00e1s sostenible.<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u00abCreemos que la tesis del ciclo de cuatro a\u00f1os se demostrar\u00e1 incorrecta y que el precio del Bitcoin podr\u00eda alcanzar nuevos m\u00e1ximos el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o\u00bb, dijo el informe.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>La empresa tambi\u00e9n afirm\u00f3 que la reciente ca\u00edda del precio es similar a lo observado en otros momentos. Normalmente, <strong>el Bitcoin sufre tres correcciones de al menos 10% al a\u00f1o debido a las fluctuaciones normales del mercado.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-338392\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/Screenshot-2025-12-02-at-09.42.48.png\" alt=\"Ciclos de halving.\" width=\"1520\" height=\"1022\" \/><\/p>\n<p>La ca\u00edda desde comienzos de octubre hasta finales de noviembre represent\u00f3 una<strong> reducci\u00f3n del 32%<\/strong>. Esto est\u00e1 muy cerca de la ca\u00edda media de largo plazo, que ronda el 30%. El momento de la correcci\u00f3n pudo haber sorprendido a los inversores que<strong> esperaban un nuevo m\u00e1ximo en noviembre<\/strong>, pero esa percepci\u00f3n, seg\u00fan la gestora, proviene de la creencia de que el ciclo de halving sigue siendo v\u00e1lido.<\/p>\n<p>Tom Lee, de Fundstrat, tambi\u00e9n cree que el <strong>Bitcoin puede alcanzar un nuevo m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico ya en enero de 2026<\/strong>. Se\u00f1al\u00f3 tendencias similares que sugieren que el mercado podr\u00eda estar prepar\u00e1ndose para una gran recuperaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<h2>Nuevo m\u00e1ximo del Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>Hay algunos factores recientes que podr\u00edan ayudar al BTC a alcanzar nuevos m\u00e1ximos. El m\u00e1s pr\u00f3ximo es la decisi\u00f3n sobre la tasa de inter\u00e9s del Federal Reserve (Fed) en diciembre. El Bitcoin podr\u00eda tener un impulso en el corto plazo <strong>si el recorte de tasas se confirma o si es mayor de lo esperado.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, hay indicios de que<strong> Kevin Hassett lidera la carrera para reemplazar a Jerome Powell<\/strong>, quien dejar\u00e1 la presidencia del Fed el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Hassett ha sido un <strong>fuerte defensor de las criptomonedas y est\u00e1 a favor de recortes a\u00fan m\u00e1s profundos en los tipos de inter\u00e9s.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Por \u00faltimo, el Comit\u00e9 de Agricultura del Senado public\u00f3 el mes pasado una<strong> propuesta bipartidista sobre la estructura del mercado cripto en Estados Unidos.<\/strong> Analistas creen que los avances en esta propuesta en 2025 podr\u00edan incentivar una mayor participaci\u00f3n institucional.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a style=\"font-size: 16px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/corea-del-sur-acelera-la-regulacion-de-stablecoins-para-el-10-de-diciembre\/\">Corea del Sur acelera la regulaci\u00f3n de stablecoins para el 10 de diciembre<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Grayscale hizo dos previsiones importantes esta semana. En la primera, la gestora afirm\u00f3 que el tradicional ciclo de cuatro a\u00f1os del Bitcoin (BTC) ya no existe. Adem\u00e1s, tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1al\u00f3 que la criptomoneda a\u00fan no alcanz\u00f3 su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico, pero que esto deber\u00eda ocurrir en 2026. Grayscale Research public\u00f3 un nuevo informe afirmando que el BTC [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":25627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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