{"id":24674,"date":"2025-11-13T17:00:50","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T17:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=24674"},"modified":"2025-11-13T14:51:38","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T14:51:38","slug":"alerta-se-esta-formando-una-cruz-de-la-muerte-para-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/alerta-se-esta-formando-una-cruz-de-la-muerte-para-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Alerta: se est\u00e1 formando una \u201ccruz de la muerte\u201d para Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> est\u00e1 a solo unos d\u00edas de imprimir una nueva <strong>cruz de la muerte diaria,<\/strong> una de las se\u00f1ales t\u00e9cnicas m\u00e1s temidas por los traders. Este movimiento ocurre cuando la<strong> media m\u00f3vil de 50 d\u00edas cruza por debajo de la media de 200 d\u00edas<\/strong>, generando una alerta cl\u00e1sica de <strong>posible debilidad<\/strong>. Sin embargo, seg\u00fan el analista <strong>Kevin, de Kev Capital TA<\/strong>, el mercado suele exagerar la importancia de esta se\u00f1al.<\/p>\n<p>Afirma que, al contrario de lo que muchos piensan, esta formaci\u00f3n <strong>\u201cha marcado los finales de las correcciones y no el inicio de las ca\u00eddas\u201d<\/strong>. En su video del 12 de noviembre, advirti\u00f3:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cNo caigas en el cuento de que Bitcoin va a caer un 80 % por la cruz de la muerte. Eso no ha ocurrido en este ciclo.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>El <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sG7CJ9DbV8Q&amp;t=1s\">analista<\/a> explica que el indicador es retrasado:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cLas medias representan el pasado. El movimiento que caus\u00f3 el cruce ya sucedi\u00f3\u201d, afirma.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Tambi\u00e9n destaca que el ciclo actual, de 2023 a 2025, se comporta de forma muy diferente a las fases verticales de 2017 y 2021.<\/p>\n<p>Seg\u00fan Kevin, el patr\u00f3n de este ciclo incluye<strong> correcciones prolongadas<\/strong>, con duraciones de entre 114 y 174 d\u00edas. Se\u00f1ala que esos periodos laterales inclinan la media de 50 d\u00edas hacia abajo, creando cruces que no se\u00f1alan una tendencia bajista, sino el agotamiento de la correcci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p>El analista repasa las tres cruces anteriores para demostrar su punto. En 2023, despu\u00e9s de meses de consolidaci\u00f3n tras los US$ 30.000, la cruz de la muerte apareci\u00f3 justo en el fondo de la correcci\u00f3n. Poco despu\u00e9s, Bitcoin subi\u00f3 de <strong>US$ 25.000 a US$ 73.000<\/strong>, mientras que las altcoins se multiplicaron entre 5 y 10 veces, seg\u00fan sus datos.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/jpmorgan-lanza-un-nuevo-token-para-clientes-institucionales-en-la-red-base\/\">JPMorgan lanza un nuevo token para clientes institucionales en la red Base<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Cruz de la muerte para Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-336778 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/Cruz-da-morte-Bitcoin.png\" alt=\"Cruz da morte Bitcoin\" width=\"1580\" height=\"838\" \/><\/p>\n<p>La segunda cruz, en 2024, ocurri\u00f3 despu\u00e9s del m\u00e1ximo de marzo y antes de la recuperaci\u00f3n impulsada por el per\u00edodo electoral en EE. UU. y el cambio de tono de la Reserva Federal. Recuerda que, d\u00edas antes de la se\u00f1al, <strong>Bitcoin ya hab\u00eda ca\u00eddo alrededor de 16 %<\/strong> en una sola sesi\u00f3n. En sus palabras, \u201cel dolor vino antes, no despu\u00e9s\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>El tercer caso, a inicios de 2025, fue a\u00fan m\u00e1s claro. El indicador marc\u00f3 exactamente el fondo de la correcci\u00f3n provocada por el miedo a nuevos aranceles y la toma de beneficios tras los m\u00e1ximos de diciembre. Despu\u00e9s de eso, el precio se recuper\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cEso define 2025: una lucha por recuperar terreno, no por expandirlo\u201d, se\u00f1ala.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>El analista explica que casi siempre <strong>Bitcoin intenta retestear las medias despu\u00e9s del cruce<\/strong>. El punto decisivo, seg\u00fan \u00e9l, est\u00e1 en el nivel semanal de US$ 106.800.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSi Bitcoin logra recuperar las medias y cerrar por encima de los US$ 106.800 en la semana, podr\u00eda buscar un nuevo m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico\u201d, comenta.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Sin embargo, advierte que fallar en ese movimiento podr\u00eda indicar que el ciclo de cuatro a\u00f1os sigue un patr\u00f3n d\u00e9bil, sin una verdadera temporada de altcoins.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSer\u00eda un ciclo que termin\u00f3 demasiado r\u00e1pido\u201d, afirma.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>El escenario se complica por las divergencias dentro de la comunidad. Muchos debaten si el ciclo debe medirse desde el fondo o desde el halving. Kevin tambi\u00e9n recuerda que <strong>antiguas ballenas est\u00e1n vendiendo<\/strong>, algo poco com\u00fan en los picos anteriores. Aun as\u00ed, dice estar sorprendido por la resistencia del precio:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSorprende ver a Bitcoin en US$ 105.000 con tanta presi\u00f3n vendedora.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>Un patr\u00f3n hist\u00f3rico que no debe causar miedo<\/h2>\n<p>El entorno macro refuerza el peso de la se\u00f1al. El analista explica que el mercado atraviesa un per\u00edodo de pol\u00edtica monetaria restrictiva, con tasas de inter\u00e9s altas que drenan la liquidez y con las acciones tecnol\u00f3gicas absorbiendo gran parte del apetito por el riesgo.<\/p>\n<p>Seg\u00fan \u00e9l, ser\u00e1 una prueba de fuerza. <strong>La cruz de la muerte deber\u00eda aparecer entre s\u00e1bado y lunes<\/strong>, provocando una reacci\u00f3n t\u00e9cnica r\u00e1pida. El desaf\u00edo ser\u00e1 romper el bloque formado por las medias de 50, 100 y 200 d\u00edas.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cSi Bitcoin logra recuperar todo eso, podr\u00eda apuntar a un nuevo m\u00e1ximo\u201d, afirma. \u201cSi no lo logra, el mercado lo sentir\u00e1.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A pesar del nombre dram\u00e1tico, Kevin sostiene que el patr\u00f3n hist\u00f3rico es claro:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cLa cruz de la muerte que todos temen ha marcado todos los fondos de este ciclo.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ahora, la se\u00f1al est\u00e1 por aparecer nuevamente, y el comportamiento de Bitcoin despu\u00e9s del cruce contar\u00e1 la verdadera historia.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a style=\"font-size: 16px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/zcash-en-alerta-el-precio-podria-caer-otro-30-en-los-proximos-dias-segun-un-analisis\/\">Zcash en alerta: el precio podr\u00eda caer otro 30% en los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas, seg\u00fan un an\u00e1lisis<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin est\u00e1 a solo unos d\u00edas de imprimir una nueva cruz de la muerte diaria, una de las se\u00f1ales t\u00e9cnicas m\u00e1s temidas por los traders. Este movimiento ocurre cuando la media m\u00f3vil de 50 d\u00edas cruza por debajo de la media de 200 d\u00edas, generando una alerta cl\u00e1sica de posible debilidad. Sin embargo, seg\u00fan el [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":24675,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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