{"id":24149,"date":"2025-11-03T10:00:52","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T10:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=24149"},"modified":"2025-10-31T20:42:49","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T20:42:49","slug":"apuestas-millonarias-en-polymarket-muestran-hasta-donde-podria-llegar-el-bitcoin-en-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/apuestas-millonarias-en-polymarket-muestran-hasta-donde-podria-llegar-el-bitcoin-en-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Apuestas millonarias en Polymarket muestran hasta d\u00f3nde podr\u00eda llegar el Bitcoin en 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Polymarket<\/strong> se ha convertido en el nuevo <strong>term\u00f3metro del sentimiento sobre el precio del Bitcoin<\/strong>. Con m\u00e1s de <strong>US$ 35 millones en volumen negociado<\/strong>, el mercado \u201c\u00bfQu\u00e9 precio alcanzar\u00e1 el Bitcoin en octubre?\u201d ha atra\u00eddo a miles de traders, quienes intentan anticipar el movimiento de la mayor criptomoneda del mundo hasta fin de a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>A pesar de la reciente fuerza del Bitcoin, la mayor\u00eda de los apostadores cree que la moneda<strong> se mantendr\u00e1 dentro de su rango actual<\/strong>, sin movimientos extremos. El escenario m\u00e1s probable sit\u00faa al activo<strong> entre US$ 100.000 y US$ 130.000<\/strong>, un rango considerado estable frente a la volatilidad del mercado cripto.<\/p>\n<p>El rango m\u00e1s alto listado, de <strong>US$ 200.000<\/strong>, tiene menos del <strong>1% de probabilidad de ocurrir<\/strong>, con contratos cotizando a 0,3 centavos. Otros escenarios optimistas, como <strong>US$ 150.000 o US$ 135.000<\/strong>, tambi\u00e9n muestran probabilidades m\u00ednimas, oscilando entre 0,3% y 1%.<\/p>\n<p>Los objetivos considerados \u201crealistas\u201d, como <strong>US$ 130.000 y US$ 100.000,<\/strong> cuentan con alrededor de <strong>3% de chance cada uno<\/strong>, reflejando la percepci\u00f3n de que el mercado a\u00fan carece de impulso para romper nuevos m\u00e1ximos. Por debajo de esto, rangos como<strong> US$ 95.000 y US$ 90.000<\/strong> aparecen con menos del<strong> 1% de probabilidad<\/strong>, indicando que los traders ven pocas posibilidades de una ca\u00edda significativa.<\/p>\n<p>Resultados m\u00e1s pesimistas, como <strong>US$ 80.000 o US$ 70.000<\/strong>, pr\u00e1cticamente quedan fuera del radar, todos con menos del 1% de probabilidad y vol\u00famenes inferiores a <strong>US$ 1 mill\u00f3n<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a style=\"font-size: 16px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/estafadores-usan-el-nombre-de-booking-com-para-enganar-a-usuarios-de-criptomonedas\/\">Estafadores usan el nombre de Booking.com para enga\u00f1ar a usuarios de criptomonedas<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Proyecciones para el precio del Bitcoin en 2025<\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-335214 size-full aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Preco-do-Bitcoin-3.png\" alt=\"Pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin (3)\" width=\"796\" height=\"704\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Mientras que las previsiones a corto plazo indican cautela, las apuestas para 2025 muestran un optimismo creciente. En el mercado <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2025?tid=1761672735783\">\u201c\u00bfQu\u00e9 precio alcanzar\u00e1 el Bitcoin en 2025?\u201d<\/a>, Polymarket indica <strong>probabilidades entre 31% y 53%<\/strong> de que el activo alcance <strong>entre US$ 130.000 y US$ 150.000<\/strong> el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<p>Los rangos m\u00e1s ambiciosos, como<strong> US$ 170.000, US$ 200.000 y US$ 250.000<\/strong>, aparecen con probabilidades mucho menores \u20146%, 3% y 2%, respectivamente. La posibilidad de que el <strong>Bitcoin llegue a US$ 1 mill\u00f3n<\/strong> es casi simb\u00f3lica, con apenas 1% de chance y contratos \u201cS\u00ed\u201d cotizando a <strong>0,7 centavos.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En el lado opuesto, el sentimiento bajista tambi\u00e9n es limitado. Las probabilidades de que el <strong>Bitcoin caiga por debajo de US$ 90.000<\/strong> en 2025 son de 18%, seguidas por<strong> 10% para US$ 80.000 y 6% para US$ 70.000.<\/strong> Los traders consideran casi imposible un colapso hacia <strong>US$ 50.000 o US$ 20.000<\/strong>, asignando solo 3% y 1% de probabilidad, respectivamente.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a style=\"font-size: 16px;background-color: #ffffff\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/memecoin-oficial-de-trump-se-dispara-en-medio-de-los-recortes-de-tasas-maxi-doge-y-otras-memecoins-podrian-ser-las-proximas\/\">Memecoin oficial de Trump se dispara en medio de los recortes de tasas \u2014 Maxi Doge y otras memecoins podr\u00edan ser las pr\u00f3ximas<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Polymarket se ha convertido en el nuevo term\u00f3metro del sentimiento sobre el precio del Bitcoin. Con m\u00e1s de US$ 35 millones en volumen negociado, el mercado \u201c\u00bfQu\u00e9 precio alcanzar\u00e1 el Bitcoin en octubre?\u201d ha atra\u00eddo a miles de traders, quienes intentan anticipar el movimiento de la mayor criptomoneda del mundo hasta fin de a\u00f1o. A [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":24150,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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