{"id":22358,"date":"2025-09-29T08:00:18","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T08:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=22358"},"modified":"2025-09-27T00:05:15","modified_gmt":"2025-09-27T00:05:15","slug":"probabilidad-de-que-bitcoin-caiga-por-debajo-de-los-us-100-000-hasta-2026-se-dispara-en-el-mercado-de-predicciones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/probabilidad-de-que-bitcoin-caiga-por-debajo-de-los-us-100-000-hasta-2026-se-dispara-en-el-mercado-de-predicciones\/","title":{"rendered":"Probabilidad de que Bitcoin caiga por debajo de los US$ 100.000 hasta 2026 se dispara en el mercado de predicciones"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>La percepci\u00f3n de riesgo en torno a Bitcoin<\/strong> ha ganado fuerza en los mercados de predicci\u00f3n. En la plataforma Polymarket,<strong> la probabilidad de que la criptomoneda caiga por debajo de US$ 100.000 antes de comienzos de 2026 salt\u00f3 al 60 %.<\/strong> El <strong>pesimismo surge<\/strong> en medio de un periodo de fuerte volatilidad en el sector.<\/p>\n<h2>Aumento de apuestas contra Bitcoin<\/h2>\n<p>La semana pasada, cuando Bitcoin a\u00fan cotizaba por encima de US$ 117.000, <strong>el mismo contrato mostraba apenas un 44 % de probabilidades de ca\u00edda.<\/strong> El movimiento<strong> gan\u00f3 fuerza en los \u00faltimos d\u00edas<\/strong>, reflejando la p\u00e9rdida de confianza tras nuevas bajas en el precio.<\/p>\n<p>Actualmente, <strong>Bitcoin se negocia entre US$ 109.000 y US$ 110.000<\/strong>, con una ca\u00edda de m\u00e1s del 2 % en las \u00faltimas 24 horas y una depreciaci\u00f3n acumulada cercana al 5 % en la semana. <strong>El retroceso acompa\u00f1a el desempe\u00f1o negativo del mercado cripto en general<\/strong>, que <strong>perdi\u00f3 casi US$ 150.000 millones en capitalizaci\u00f3n<\/strong> durante el periodo, en medio de liquidaciones masivas y menor exposici\u00f3n de los inversores a activos de riesgo.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-332454\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/polymarket.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"561\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a style=\"font-size: 16px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/golden-cross-de-dogecoin-podria-senalar-la-proxima-cripto-en-subir-1000x-estas-son-las-elecciones-de-chatgpt\/\">Golden Cross de Dogecoin podr\u00eda se\u00f1alar la pr\u00f3xima cripto en subir 1000x \u2013 Estas son las elecciones de ChatGPT<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Contratos mueven millones<\/h2>\n<p>Seg\u00fan datos de <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/btc-above-100k-till-2025-end?tid=1758898260880\">Polymarket<\/a>, <strong>el contrato con vencimiento el 31 de diciembre de 2025 ya mueve US$ 1,39 millones en volumen.<\/strong> El aumento del inter\u00e9s refleja tanto a inversores que <strong>buscan cobertura<\/strong> como a <strong>especuladores <\/strong>que apuestan por un escenario m\u00e1s pesimista para el precio del activo.<\/p>\n<p>Aunque no representan predicciones oficiales,<strong> los mercados de apuestas funcionan como un term\u00f3metro del sentimiento de los participantes.<\/strong> En este caso, el aumento en las probabilidades se\u00f1ala <strong>temores de que Bitcoin tenga dificultades para sostener soportes clave<\/strong> frente al endurecimiento de la liquidez global y las presiones macroecon\u00f3micas.<\/p>\n<h2>Sentimiento dividido en el mercado<\/h2>\n<p>Pese al movimiento reciente, <strong>a\u00fan faltan tres meses para el cierre de 2025<\/strong>, un periodo en el que los cambios bruscos de sentimiento son comunes en el ciclo de Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p><strong>La expectativa de que octubre traiga una recuperaci\u00f3n<\/strong> \u2014tradicionalmente apodado <strong>\u201cUptober\u201d<\/strong>\u2014 mantiene aparte del mercado optimista respecto a una posible reversi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a style=\"font-size: 16px\" href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/protocolo-cripto-desaparece-con-us-36-millones-y-es-acusado-de-estafa\/\">Protocolo cripto desaparece con US$ 3,6 millones y es acusado de estafa<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La percepci\u00f3n de riesgo en torno a Bitcoin ha ganado fuerza en los mercados de predicci\u00f3n. En la plataforma Polymarket, la probabilidad de que la criptomoneda caiga por debajo de US$ 100.000 antes de comienzos de 2026 salt\u00f3 al 60 %. El pesimismo surge en medio de un periodo de fuerte volatilidad en el sector. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":22359,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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