{"id":13118,"date":"2025-04-08T13:00:12","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T13:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=13118"},"modified":"2025-04-07T19:10:39","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T19:10:39","slug":"el-ciclo-alcista-de-bitcoin-ha-terminado-afirma-el-ceo-de-cryptoquant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/el-ciclo-alcista-de-bitcoin-ha-terminado-afirma-el-ceo-de-cryptoquant\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00abEl ciclo alcista de Bitcoin ha terminado\u00bb, afirma el CEO de CryptoQuant"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ki Young Ju, CEO de CryptoQuant, ha afirmado que <strong>el ciclo alcista de Bitcoin ha llegado a su fin<\/strong>, bas\u00e1ndose en datos on-chain que indican la estancaci\u00f3n de la capitalizaci\u00f3n realizada, una m\u00e9trica que mide el capital real inyectado en el mercado.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cEl precio del BTC est\u00e1 un 25% por debajo de su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico. <strong>La presi\u00f3n vendedora supera la demanda, incluso con entradas de capital.<\/strong> La capitalizaci\u00f3n realizada, calculada por el costo promedio de las carteras multiplicado por el BTC en circulaci\u00f3n, no sigue la valorizaci\u00f3n del mercado, lo que se\u00f1ala el riesgo de una tendencia bajista\u201d, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/1908537068420304974\">explic\u00f3 Ju en su cuenta de X.<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Seg\u00fan Ju, la diferencia entre las capitalizaciones es crucial. Mientras que la capitalizaci\u00f3n de mercado refleja el precio reciente frente a la oferta, la realizada muestra el dinero real en circulaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong>\u201cLas compras peque\u00f1as pueden inflar la capitalizaci\u00f3n de mercado, pero no significan una entrada masiva de recursos\u201d<\/strong>, destac\u00f3.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-315247 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/capitalizacao-do-mercado-e-alta-do-Bitcoin.webp\" alt=\"Capitaliza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado e alta do Bitcoin no fim\" width=\"1320\" height=\"383\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, los gr\u00e1ficos de CryptoQuant revelan una divergencia preocupante. A pesar de la <strong>alta capitalizaci\u00f3n de mercado<\/strong>, una zona roja al final del gr\u00e1fico indica el inicio de una fase bajista.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cHist\u00f3ricamente, las reversiones tardan seis meses\u201d, alert\u00f3 Ju, descartando una recuperaci\u00f3n r\u00e1pida.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>El anuncio se produce en medio de turbulencias globales. Las <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/eventos-que-podrian-impactar-aun-mas-al-mercado-cripto-esta-semana\/\"><strong>pol\u00edticas comerciales de Donald Trump<\/strong> <\/a>han generado volatilidad en activos de riesgo. En la \u00faltima semana, 90 de las 100 principales criptomonedas experimentaron ca\u00eddas, reflejando una fuga hacia activos seguros, como los bonos del Tesoro.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/xrp-y-otras-cuatro-criptomonedas-a-seguir-esta-semana\/\">XRP y otras cuatro criptomonedas a seguir esta semana<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>La subida de Bitcoin ha terminado<\/h2>\n<p>Sin embargo, <strong>Bitcoin muestra se\u00f1ales de desacoplamiento<\/strong>. Parte de la comunidad argumenta que el BTC ya no sigue las tendencias de riesgo tradicionales, pero Ju se mantiene esc\u00e9ptico:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cEl mercado a\u00fan est\u00e1 guiado por la liquidez y la presi\u00f3n vendedora\u201d.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>El \u201cD\u00eda de la Liberaci\u00f3n\u201d \u2014cuando Trump anunci\u00f3 sus medidas\u2014 intensific\u00f3 las ventas. A pesar de ello, el precio de <strong>BTC sigue un 60% por encima de los niveles de principios de 2024<\/strong>, lo que indica una relativa resiliencia. \u201c<strong>Los ajustes son normales despu\u00e9s de subidas expresivas\u201d<\/strong>, coment\u00f3 un trader an\u00f3nimo.<\/p>\n<p>Para Ju, el problema radica en la liquidez. <strong>\u201cCuando la presi\u00f3n vendedora es alta, ni siquiera las compras grandes pueden mantener los precios\u201d<\/strong>, ejemplific\u00f3, recordando que el BTC no reaccion\u00f3 significativamente cerca de los 100.000 d\u00f3lares (alrededor de 92.000 euros), incluso con un volumen elevado.<\/p>\n<p>Los expertos est\u00e1n divididos sobre el futuro. Algunos ven una <strong>oportunidad de compra en la ca\u00edda<\/strong>, mientras que otros recomiendan cautela hasta que haya se\u00f1ales claras de recuperaci\u00f3n. <strong>\u201cEl mercado necesita un nuevo catalizador\u201d<\/strong>, resumi\u00f3 una analista independiente.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant mantiene una previsi\u00f3n conservadora: no habr\u00e1 reversi\u00f3n antes de seis meses.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201cLos ciclos anteriores muestran que la paciencia es esencial\u201d<\/strong>, reforz\u00f3 Ju, recordando que los criptoinviernos duran, en promedio, 18 meses.<\/p>\n<p>Los inversores institucionales est\u00e1n monitoreando los indicadores. <strong>\u201cLa capitalizaci\u00f3n realizada parada es una se\u00f1al de alerta\u201d<\/strong>, admiti\u00f3 un gestor de hedge fund. Seg\u00fan los informes del mercado, los fondos han reducido su exposici\u00f3n a las criptomonedas desde abril.<\/p>\n<p>A corto plazo, los analistas t\u00e9cnicos se\u00f1alan un soporte en los 78.000 d\u00f3lares (aproximadamente 72.000 euros) que, si se rompe, y el BTC cierra por debajo de esa marca, podr\u00eda buscar los 70.000 d\u00f3lares (unos 64.000 euros).<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/brasil-nada-contra-la-corriente-global-e-invierte-14-millones-de-dolares-en-fondos-de-criptomonedas\/\">Brasil nada contra la corriente global e invierte 1,4 millones de d\u00f3lares en fondos de criptomonedas<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ki Young Ju, CEO de CryptoQuant, ha afirmado que el ciclo alcista de Bitcoin ha llegado a su fin, bas\u00e1ndose en datos on-chain que indican la estancaci\u00f3n de la capitalizaci\u00f3n realizada, una m\u00e9trica que mide el capital real inyectado en el mercado. \u201cEl precio del BTC est\u00e1 un 25% por debajo de su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":13119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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