{"id":12327,"date":"2025-03-25T15:00:44","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T15:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/?p=12327"},"modified":"2025-03-25T15:08:47","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T15:08:47","slug":"bitcoin-y-nasdaq-alcanzan-un-70-de-correlacion-pero-se-avecina-una-ruptura","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/bitcoin-y-nasdaq-alcanzan-un-70-de-correlacion-pero-se-avecina-una-ruptura\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin y Nasdaq alcanzan un 70% de correlaci\u00f3n, pero se avecina una ruptura"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"\" data-start=\"84\" data-end=\"389\"><strong>El Bitcoin y el Nasdaq est\u00e1n movi\u00e9ndose al mismo ritmo, pero la sincron\u00eda podr\u00eda estar llegando a su fin.<\/strong> Datos de Matrixport revelan que <strong>la correlaci\u00f3n entre ambos activos ha alcanzado el 70%<\/strong>, un nivel cr\u00edtico que, en las dos ocasiones anteriores en que ocurri\u00f3, fue seguido por una r\u00e1pida divergencia.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"391\" data-end=\"600\">Lo que parec\u00eda una <strong>armon\u00eda pasajera entre la criptomoneda y las acciones tecnol\u00f3gicas<\/strong> ahora muestra signos de agotamiento, lo que sugiere que este periodo de correlaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda estar en sus \u00faltimos momentos.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-313707 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/BItcoin-Matrixport-Nasdaq.png\" alt=\"O gr\u00e1fico mostra a correla\u00e7\u00e3o de 30 dias entre o Bitcoin (representado pelo ETF IBIT) e o \u00edndice Nasdaq, com dados de fevereiro de 2024 a abril de 2025. Uma linha ilustra a varia\u00e7\u00e3o da correla\u00e7\u00e3o, que atualmente se aproxima de 70% \u2014 n\u00edvel alcan\u00e7ado apenas duas vezes anteriormente. No eixo horizontal, as datas est\u00e3o distribu\u00eddas em intervalos de dois meses. O texto destaca que essa alta correla\u00e7\u00e3o indica que o Bitcoin est\u00e1 sendo influenciado pelas mesmas for\u00e7as macroecon\u00f4micas que outros ativos de risco, como a\u00e7\u00f5es de tecnologia. No entanto, alerta-se que correla\u00e7\u00f5es t\u00e3o elevadas historicamente s\u00e3o passageiras, sugerindo que uma diverg\u00eancia entre o Bitcoin e o Nasdaq pode estar pr\u00f3xima. O gr\u00e1fico inclui a marca 'Matrixport' e a data de 25 de mar\u00e7o de 2025.\" width=\"734\" height=\"736\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"760\" data-end=\"1025\">Generalmente, el Bitcoin es visto como un activo contrario a los mercados tradicionales. En momentos en que la bolsa de valores cae, la demanda de Bitcoin tiende a aumentar, ya que muchos inversores lo consideran un activo de cobertura frente a crisis econ\u00f3micas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1027\" data-end=\"1401\">Hist\u00f3ricamente, el BTC ha mostrado cierta independencia de los factores macroecon\u00f3micos que afectan a las acciones, como las tasas de inter\u00e9s y el crecimiento global. Sin embargo, los <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Matrixport_EN\/status\/1904459894826455540\/photo\/1\">datos de Matrixport<\/a> reflejan que, en ciertas ocasiones, el Bitcoin sigue la misma tendencia que los mercados tradicionales, especialmente cuando su correlaci\u00f3n con el Nasdaq supera el 70%.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1403\" data-end=\"1572\">Esto ocurri\u00f3 a mediados de 2024 y se repiti\u00f3 a inicios de 2025, cuando el Bitcoin subi\u00f3 junto con las acciones de gigantes tecnol\u00f3gicos como Apple, Microsoft y Nvidia.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"1574\" data-end=\"1722\">Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/informe-inedito-muestra-que-el-11-de-ethereum-en-staking-esta-en-manos-de-coinbase\/\">Informe in\u00e9dito muestra que el 11% de Ethereum en staking est\u00e1 en manos de Coinbase<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 data-start=\"1724\" data-end=\"1769\"><strong data-start=\"1728\" data-end=\"1767\">Factores detr\u00e1s de esta correlaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"1771\" data-end=\"1836\">Existen dos razones principales que explican esta convergencia. Primero, la <strong>mayor institucionalizaci\u00f3n del Bitcoin. <\/strong>La aprobaci\u00f3n de los ETF de Bitcoin en EE.UU. en 2024 atrajo a inversores institucionales, que han comenzado a tratar al BTC como otro activo de riesgo dentro de sus carteras, al igual que las acciones tecnol\u00f3gicas.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-313705 size-large aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/BitcoinNasdaqCorrelacao-689x840.png\" alt=\"A imagem mostra dois gr\u00e1ficos sobrepostos comparando o desempenho do Bitcoin e do Nasdaq Composite. No gr\u00e1fico superior, a linha azul representa o \u00edndice Nasdaq, variando entre 17.000 e 19.500 pontos entre 3 e 24 de mar\u00e7o, com oscila\u00e7\u00f5es suaves. No gr\u00e1fico inferior, a linha laranja mostra o pre\u00e7o do Bitcoin em d\u00f3lares, com varia\u00e7\u00f5es mais acentuadas, partindo de US$ 75 mil em 24 de fevereiro e atingindo picos pr\u00f3ximos a US$ 100 mil em mar\u00e7o. Ambos os gr\u00e1ficos compartilham o mesmo eixo horizontal (tempo), destacando per\u00edodos de correla\u00e7\u00e3o entre os ativos. No canto inferior direito, um pequeno gr\u00e1fico hist\u00f3rico (2014-2024) contextualiza a tend\u00eancia de longo prazo do Bitcoin.\" width=\"689\" height=\"840\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong data-start=\"2107\" data-end=\"2147\">Adem\u00e1s, hay los factores macroecon\u00f3micos compartidos. <\/strong>En momentos de optimismo en los mercados, como la expectativa de recortes en las tasas de inter\u00e9s de la Reserva Federal, tanto el Nasdaq como el Bitcoin tienden a subir. En contraste, en escenarios de incertidumbre, como tensiones geopol\u00edticas relacionadas con las pol\u00edticas de Donald Trump, ambos pueden caer simult\u00e1neamente.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2479\" data-end=\"2519\"><strong data-start=\"2483\" data-end=\"2517\">\u00bfCu\u00e1nto durar\u00e1 esta tendencia?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2521\" data-end=\"2736\">A pesar de estos periodos de alta correlaci\u00f3n, la historia muestra que suelen ser temporales. Cada vez que el nivel ha alcanzado el 70%, la correlaci\u00f3n se disipa y Bitcoin vuelve a moverse de manera independiente.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"2738\" data-end=\"2975\">Si el Nasdaq cae debido a malos resultados de las empresas tecnol\u00f3gicas, el Bitcoin podr\u00eda subir como un refugio. Por otro lado, si el BTC sufre presiones regulatorias y cae, el Nasdaq podr\u00eda beneficiarse de una reubicaci\u00f3n de capital.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2977\" data-end=\"3010\"><strong data-start=\"2981\" data-end=\"3008\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 esperar para 2025?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3012\" data-end=\"3210\">Seg\u00fan Matrixport, tras esta fase de correlaci\u00f3n extrema, la volatilidad del Bitcoin podr\u00eda aumentar. Si el patr\u00f3n hist\u00f3rico se repite, el BTC desacoplar\u00e1 del Nasdaq y retomar\u00e1 su propia direcci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\" data-start=\"3212\" data-end=\"3327\">Uno de los dos activos podr\u00eda superar al otro, pero a\u00fan es pronto para saber cu\u00e1l marcar\u00e1 la diferencia este a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"3212\" data-end=\"3327\">Lee tambi\u00e9n: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.criptofacil.com\/es\/bitcoin-podria-alcanzar-los-110-000-usd-con-nuevos-datos-de-inflacion-segun-arthur-hayes\/\">Bitcoin podr\u00eda alcanzar los 110.000 USD con nuevos datos de inflaci\u00f3n, seg\u00fan Arthur Hayes<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Bitcoin y el Nasdaq est\u00e1n movi\u00e9ndose al mismo ritmo, pero la sincron\u00eda podr\u00eda estar llegando a su fin. Datos de Matrixport revelan que la correlaci\u00f3n entre ambos activos ha alcanzado el 70%, un nivel cr\u00edtico que, en las dos ocasiones anteriores en que ocurri\u00f3, fue seguido por una r\u00e1pida divergencia. Lo que parec\u00eda una [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":140,"featured_media":12328,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1760],"tags":[1766,1781,1782,1779,1771,1811,1767,2112,1816],"class_list":["post-12327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mercado","tag-analisis","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-criptoactivos","tag-criptomonedas","tag-inversion","tag-mercado","tag-nasdaq","tag-super-titular"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin y Nasdaq alcanzan un 70% de correlaci\u00f3n, pero se avecina una ruptura<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La correlaci\u00f3n alcanz\u00f3 el 70%, pero los datos hist\u00f3ricos muestran que el Bitcoin deber\u00eda volver a moverse de manera independiente de las acciones 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